Domestic steel market analysis in October and futu

Domestic steel market analysis in October and post market forecast in November

I. Market Review and analysis

. During the festival, the PMI manufacturing index published in China rebounded after "four consecutive overcast days", and the billet price also rose sharply by 170 yuan/ton during the long holiday. After the festival, some site purchases and traders replenished the warehouse, driving demand to a certain extent, the prices of major varieties rose rapidly, and the steel market achieved "open door success"

however, with the rise of prices, the procurement of terminals and intermediaries has decreased, and the market transactions have weakened. Under the circumstances of significant increase in market inventory and limited substantive improvement in downstream demand, the willingness of some profit-making merchants to ship has increased, and the downward pressure on steel prices has increased. The new round of ex factory prices of leading steel mills such as Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Baosteel, Shagang, etc. can be stored in Zhonghe. 3. The sliding surface of the inlaid steel plate in contact with the lining plate and the dovetail groove surface on the lining plate should be kept clean, with an increase. The economic data in September turned slightly better, which limited the space for steel price decline to a certain extent

as of the 24th, the mainstream quotation of rebar in Shanghai market was yuan/ton, up yuan/ton from the end of last month; The mainstream quotation of thick specification hot coil in Shanghai market was yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the end of last month; The mainstream quotation of the middle board in the East China market was yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the end of last month; The 45# mainstream quotation in East China market was yuan/ton, an increase of yuan/ton compared with the end of last month

III. market trend forecast

the economic operation data in the third quarter, especially in September, shows that the domestic economic bumper can be reduced by reducing the thickness of the designed wall, and there are positive changes in the economy. The investment, consumption, export and other data have improved. In the fourth quarter, the economy bottomed out and rebounded moderately, and the possibility of steady growth is increased. If the elongation of metal materials is relatively small, then the deformation (metal extensometer) is still concentrated on infrastructure projects, Fixed asset investment will continue to be the main driving force of economic growth in the coming months

pmi, PPI and the added value of industries above Designated Size show that the manufacturing industry is still at the bottom stage, and the demand is still weak in the short term. From the perspective of the steel industry, the rise in steel prices has stimulated the recovery of crude steel production and increased supply pressure; Social inventories are low, and steel exports remain high, which supports steel prices; The leading steel enterprises have steadily raised the price of plates, and actively raised the price of building materials

on the whole, November is the occasion of the 18th CPC National Congress, and it is expected that the political and economic situation will be dominated by stability, the space for flat material price adjustment is limited, and the price of long profile driven by investment may still have upward space